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Nix Trading Notes

17. Common Trading Models

4 min read

17.1 Reversal Model

Section titled “17.1 Reversal Model”
  1. HTF key level hit.
  2. SMT manipulation.
  3. Swing point / PSP.
  4. SS / SSMT.
  5. Displacement / gap.
  6. LTF CISD / FVG entry.
  7. SL at invalidation.
  8. Target close-proximity draw / original DoL.
  9. Prefer second CISD for reversal unless the first CISD is V-shaped and strongly displaced.

17.2 Continuation Model

Section titled “17.2 Continuation Model”
  1. Trend established.
  2. Consolidation appears.
  3. One side swept.
  4. Failure to manipulate the opposite internal level / range edge.
  5. Gap / FVG forms.
  6. 1-stage SMT is usually enough if the gap is recent.
  7. Entry on retest.
  8. Target original DoL / range edge.
  9. Prefer first CISD for continuation.

17.3 Asset Sync Model

Section titled “17.3 Asset Sync Model”
  1. Identify leading and lagging assets.
  2. Trade the leading asset until the draw is met.
  3. If the leading asset reaches draw, switch to the lagging asset.
  4. After SS, prefer entering the new leading asset.
  5. Wait for SS unless the leading asset has a close-proximity continuation draw.
  6. If all assets expand away from a reversal zone, they likely target the low-hanging draw already taken by the leading asset.
  7. Displacement verifies reversal.

17.4 Decoupling / Re-sync Model

Section titled “17.4 Decoupling / Re-sync Model”
  1. Wait for the 6:00am H4 candle close.
  2. Identify which asset is in foreseen distribution.
  3. Identify which assets are manipulating into the opposing key level.
  4. Expect the 6:00 H4 close to potentially form PSP.
  5. Watch the 10:00 H4 candle for SS / re-sync.
  6. If 10:00 fails to re-sync, watch 10:30 / the new 90m open.
  7. Trade:
    • SMT fill sequence on the foreseen distribution asset;
    • SS-SMT on the manipulating assets;
    • lagging / middle asset catch-up if RR supports.

17.5 Driver Model

Section titled “17.5 Driver Model”
  1. Check whether reversal formed before the driver.
  2. If yes: driver continuation.
  3. If no: driver reversal.
  4. If the driver fails to reverse: invalidation.
  5. If manipulation occurs before the driver but there is no reversal: driver expands away.
  6. If price retraces into a gap before the driver but does not reverse, price should expand from the driver.
  7. Driver-created PSP = high-probability time-based CiC.

17.6 Failure Swing Model

Section titled “17.6 Failure Swing Model”
  1. Failure swing appears.
  2. Wait for SS.
  3. Wait for gap away.
  4. Only then consider trading away from the failure swing.
  5. Without SS + gap away, failure swing is not enough.
  6. If the clean CiSD is too far away, a valid failure-swing CiSD may be used.

17.7 Five-Step System

Section titled “17.7 Five-Step System”

  1. Draw

    • Draws include highs / lows and FVGs.
    • The draw should ideally be low-resistance liquidity.
    • Low resistance = failure swings.
    • High resistance = protected swings.
    • Do not trade into protected swings.

  2. Profile

    • Preferred profile: AMD with a small daily wick.
    • Seek-and-Destroy: trade extremes.
    • Range consolidation: SMT usually validates a failure swing.

  3. Key Levels

    • Valid key levels are relevant swings.
    • Exception: failure swing with SMT.

  4. CiC

    • CiC confirms a bias.
    • CiC does not create the bias by itself.
    • Valid SMT needs to be at a key level.
    • Two ways to trade a 4H C2 without necessarily waiting for closure:
      1. small wick;
      2. large wick back to open.

  5. LTF Signature

    • Prefer a bulky-bodied CiSD.
    • If the CiSD is too far away, a failure-swing CiSD may be used.

17.8 Daily-Range Retracement Model

Section titled “17.8 Daily-Range Retracement Model”

A three-step, three-timeframe recipe for range-bound conditions:

  1. Daily: mark the previous day high and previous day low; wait to see which is engaged first.
  2. Hourly: wait for a retracement back into a discounted (if short) or premium (if long) internal-range PDA — typically a fair value gap — inside the dealing range created by that engagement.
  3. 15-minute: confirm with an SMT and a market structure shift, then enter above (short) or below (long) the midnight opening price, targeting the internal range / an obvious liquidity pool.

Works best in consolidating, range-bound conditions; re-evaluate it in a strongly trending market.

Personal study notes, shared as-is and in good faith. Educational material only — nothing on this site constitutes financial advice.