8. Drivers & Time

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8.1 Driver Narrative

Community insight

Whether a reversal was already in before the driver decides continuation vs reversal — and manipulation at 8:30 tends to lead into 9:30/10:00 continuation, manipulation at 9:30 into 10:00 continuation. — Garrett — "How I Confirm Narrative with Drivers", 11:45
If an SSMT forms before the driver, expect the driver to expand. — Garrett — "A Deeper Dive into SMT Divergence", 38:42
If a driver trades into an unestablished key level and fails to reverse, that invalidates the whole day's profile, not just that one setup. — Garrett — "How I Confirm Narrative With Drivers", 12:25
A driver confirms continuation when it opens and trades away from the prior reversal's CISD, printing an opposing candle and closing through it. — Garrett — "How I Confirm Narrative With Drivers", 10:50
A 6am reversal is preferred over 2am or 10am specifically because the 8:30/9:30 drivers sit inside that 4H window, giving the reversal a driver to pair with. — Garrett — "4H Profiling", 17:04
When a high or low of day forms before a driver, the driver should expand away from it — that is the confirmation the level is real. If the driver instead fails to reverse or disrespects that level, treat it as a red flag rather than trading the level anyway. — Garrett — weekly trade recap (3K subscribers), 4:55
If the previous week or Friday already expanded, don't expect Monday to continue that expansion — expect it to retrace back into the previous week's range instead, and expect that retracement early in the week rather than late. — Garrett — trade recap, January 2, 31:00

Core rules:

State before driver	Expectation
Reversal has already been put in before the driver	Driver continuation
Reversal has not been put in before the driver	Driver reversal
Driver fails to reverse	Invalidation
Price retraces into a gap before a driver but does not reverse	Driver expansion
8:30 manipulation	9:30 / 10:00 continuation
9:30 manipulation	10:00 continuation

If price manipulates before a driver but fails to reverse, the driver should expand away.

If price retraces into a gap before a driver but does not reverse, price should expand from the driver.

If SSMT forms before the driver, the driver should expand.

8.2 Driver Usage Rules

If price is close to a driver, wait for the driver.
Around drivers, LTF CISD is acceptable.
Drivers are the easiest way to fade a wick.
If a driver candle forms PSP, it is time-based CiC and has higher probability.
If a driver forms reversal, usually only 1 stage is needed.
If price retraced into a gap before the driver and failed to reverse, use the driver as the expansion timing reference.

8.3 Filtering Relevant Drivers

Community insight

Filter your news calendar down to the asset you're actually trading and to red-folder events only — indices only care about USD news, oil runs on its own energy calendar, and forex only cares about its own pair's two currencies. — Garrett — "How I Confirm Narrative With Drivers", 0:26
As a standing rule: avoid trading Monday entirely (under every weekly profile it is only ever a Judas swing, consolidation, or reversal, never the expansion day) and avoid every day before the week's first significant high-impact news release, since the days beforehand tend to just accumulate/consolidate ahead of it. — AM — "Weekly Profiles For Daily Bias", 5:16
On an NFP week, extend the usual pre-driver caution to both the day before NFP (Thursday) and Monday: Thursday tends to accumulate ahead of the release and then get manipulated on both sides once it drops, so Tuesday, Wednesday, and post-release Friday are the higher-probability days to actually look for trades that week. — AM — NFP trade recap, 0:38
Not every high-impact release deserves the same day-before caution: the day before CPI (or FOMC meeting minutes) is still open to trading, just with slightly added caution — this is treated differently from the day before NFP, which is avoided outright. — AM — Continuation trade breakdown, 3:24

Only trade around red-folder news events that actually affect the asset being traded. Filter the calendar down to that asset and to red-folder impact only.
For indices, only USD red-folder news is relevant, and the 9:30 New York Stock Exchange open is an indices-specific time. It does not apply to gold, oil, or forex.
8:30 is not inherently significant. It only matters when there is an actual red-folder 8:30 news event that day.
Oil / energy drivers come from the energy calendar, not the USD calendar. USD news does not drive oil.
Caution protocol: avoid entering directly ahead of NFP, CPI, or an FOMC press conference on the same day as the release. Trading the day before the release is fine.

8.4 Positional Entries Around Drivers

The daily candle has a protraction phase, which forms the wick before expansion, and an expansion phase, which forms the body.
The highest-probability driver pairing is one where price is still in the protraction phase when the driver hits, since the daily range has not expanded yet and a manipulation there should produce one-sided expansion with no retracement.
A positional entry, meaning opening ahead of the driver rather than waiting for confirmation, requires the driver’s open to sit in close proximity to a clear, bulky set of opposing candles, so the trade is not wicked out, and the key level must not yet have been expanded away from.
A positional entry also needs an open target left available, such as failure swings / low-resistance liquidity or an unestablished previous high or low, otherwise the anticipated move has nowhere obvious to go.
Previous highs and lows are close to a guaranteed target for high-volume drivers such as CPI or NFP, since the market does not consolidate through them during that kind of volume.

Personal study notes, shared as-is and in good faith. Educational material only — nothing on this site constitutes financial advice.