15. Low-Probability / No-Trade Conditions

15.1 No-Trade Conditions

Do not trade:

• C4+ candle.
• Around London 9:00; wait for price action to settle.
• Near a driver; wait for the driver.
• When the current MTF candle has a long wick; wait for a new open.
• After the DoL has already been reached.
• If LTF CISD is untrustworthy; wait for a gap.
• If price has retraced beyond EQ.
• Double sweep.
• Second entry without displacement.
• Assets decouple but there is no SS.
• Key level has no SMT and no internal SMT.
• Draw is too far away or too far to the left.
• RR does not support the trade.
• Daily logic does not align with 4H / 6H profiling.
• 30m / 1H price action is not clean.
• Failure swing without SS and gap away.
• Expecting expansion without SS / HTF open / new key level.
• Trading into a protected swing without exceptional confirmation.
• If the draw is high-resistance rather than low-resistance.
• SMT is not at a key level and there is no failure-swing exception.
• Treating CiC as creating the bias rather than confirming an already formed bias.
• Taking the wrong CISD for the model:
  • chasing the second CISD on continuation without reason;
  • forcing the first CISD on reversal without enough confirmation.

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15.2 Low-Probability Reversal Conditions

• Price has retraced beyond EQ.
• Double sweep.
• SMT high / low is not formed at roughly the same time.
• SMT fill creates EQL / EQH without V-shape recovery.
• No SS and no all-assets V-shape.
• Only a failure swing; do not care about SMT with failure swings.
• Swing formation has no key-level support.
• Correlation crack appears but no LTF reversal signature follows.

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